US Elite Waking Up To Danger of Korea-Rooted Global Conflagration I — Tom Friedman: Trump’s Lust for Trade War w China Will Make Them Unwilling To Help Curb N Korea

As a result, Litwak explains in his new book, “Preventing North Korea’s Nuclear Breakout,”

North Korea is on the cusp of moving from a nuclear bomb arsenal estimated to be in the midteens — to an arsenal that could be as large as 100 warheads,

and from missiles that can hit only Japan and Korea (and China!) to ones that can cross the Pacific.

It has reached a point where the U.S. has only three options,: “bomb, acquiesce or negotiate.”

[ Each one has its own SERIOUS dangers. ]

Bombing North Korea’s nuclear and missile sites runs the risk of escalating into a second (possibly nuclear) Korean war with over a million casualties.

North Korea’s nuclear facilities are “hot,” and bombing them could have untold consequences in terms of radioactivity.

Alternatively, acquiescing to a breakout means this failed state could — incredibly — become a major nuclear power with a global reach.

“So that just leaves negotiating,” says Litwak.

Donald Trump negotiating with Kim Jong-un does have a certain pay-per-view quality about it [ actually a good line ] but it’s the least bad option.

And to make it more interesting, the model that Trump should follow, argues Litwak, is the nuclear deal that Obama struck with Iran,

which Trump once described as “the worst deal ever negotiated.”

Think again, [ Donald ] .

Obama had the same three choices on Iran: bomb, acquiesce or negotiate.

He did not want to bomb Iranian nuclear installations, because of the uncontrollable events bombing could unleash, and he did not want to acquiesce.

So Obama negotiated what Litwak calls a “purely transactional” deal —

Iran agreed to a 15-year halt on processing weapons-usable fissile material in return for significant sanctions relief, and no other behaviors were covered.

Obama’s bet?

Something will happen in these 15 years that will be “transformational,” says Litwak,

and provide the only true security — a change in the character of Iran’s regime.

Trump should follow that path, argues Litwak:

  • Get North Korea to freeze its nuclear warheads at present levels — ~ 15 —
  • freeze all production of weapons-usable fissile material
  • and freeze all ballistic missile testing — so it cannot hit the US —
  • in return for an easing of economic sanctions and some economic aid.

[ Sure … sounds great … how is such an outcome even remotely possible ??? ]

“It would be a transactional deal that constrains North Korea’s capabilities and buys time for a transformation, just like the Iran deal did,” says Litwak.

The Kim cult should go for it, because it keeps them in power with a minimum deterrence against a U.S. invasion.

And China might be willing to help with this deal,

because freezing North Korea’s nuclear capability would likely forestall China’s rivals — Japan and South Korea — from getting nukes of their own.

But Trump will need China — so he’d better think twice about starting a trade war with Beijing.

Trump will soon discover that in foreign policy, everything is like Obamacare —

  • easy to criticize,
  • more transactional than transformational,
  • but all the other options are worse.

And there are no pure wins to boast about.

Those only happen on TV.

Source: Donald, Have I Got a Deal for You – The New York Times